Prediction markets let you bet yes or no on real-world outcomes, and they're booming in the US. In Canada the picture is very different: they sit in a regulatory grey zone, and the country's watchdogs just reaffirmed it.

What a prediction market is

A prediction market lets you trade "yes" or "no" on a future event (an election, an interest-rate decision, a sports result) at a price that moves with the odds: buy "yes" at 60 cents and you collect a dollar if it happens. In the US these markets have exploded. In Canada the picture is very different, and in early 2026 the country's regulators spelled out why.

What Canada actually allows

Here, prediction markets are treated as securities and derivatives rather than casino games, so they fall to the investment regulators. A March 2026 bulletin from the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO), followed by an April joint statement with the Canadian Securities Administrators, reminded the industry that existing rules still apply. The only event contracts cleared so far are narrow economic forecasts (think inflation or central-bank rate calls), offered through a registered investment dealer such as Wealthsimple. Political and sports contracts are not on the menu.

So what about Polymarket and Kalshi?

  • Kalshi is regulated in the US by the CFTC, but it lists Canada among its restricted jurisdictions, so Canadian residents cannot use it.
  • Polymarket runs on a crypto wallet and is technically reachable from Canada, but it holds no licence from any Canadian securities or gaming regulator, and it is blocked in Ontario.

"Reachable" is not the same as "regulated." A prediction market you can open through a crypto wallet still has no Canadian licence behind it.

Could one launch in Ontario?

In theory it could, through the same door as every casino we list. An operator would have to register with the AGCO and sign an agreement with iGaming Ontario, then meet the standards on integrity, anti-money-laundering and responsible gambling. Even then, sport is off the table: the AGCO permits only verifiable non-sporting "novelty" bets, not "yes/no" markets on games. Until an operator clears that bar, there is no licensed prediction market in Canada.

What it means for you

It comes down to the same test we apply to any casino: who is the licence behind it? An unlicensed prediction market sits in the same grey zone as an offshore casino, with no Canadian fund protection and no provincial route if something goes wrong. If you want a regulated bet on an outcome today, that means a sportsbook or casino operating under an iGaming Ontario agreement, not a prediction-market app.